Political Situation in Croatia Ahead of the 2024 Elections
11/09/24 19:24
Political Situation in Croatia Ahead of the 2024 Elections
Background and Political Climate
As Croatia gears up for its 2024 parliamentary elections, the political atmosphere is marked by intense competition, polarization, and a complex array of issues. The dominant political players include the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which has governed for much of the country's post-independence history, and the main opposition bloc led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) under the "Rivers of Justice" coalition.
Croatia's political system remains a parliamentary republic, with power divided between the president and prime minister. Prime Minister Andrej Plenković from HDZ and President Zoran Milanović, backed by the SDP, represent the two poles of political power. Both leaders have often engaged in heated exchanges, contributing to an increasingly polarized public discourse. This antagonism, combined with showmanship often likened to "Balkan" political culture, underscores a lack of political decorum, which has become a focal point of criticism【9†source】【10†source】.
Key Political Parties and Coalitions
1. Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)
The HDZ remains the largest party, but its dominance has been challenged in recent years. Despite winning the 2020 elections with 66 seats, early projections for 2024 suggest a decrease in support, with HDZ expected to secure around 58 seats. While still the front-runner, HDZ's hold on power is precarious. Its success will depend on building a coalition with smaller parties and the diaspora's three reserved seats【9†source】.
2. Social Democratic Party (SDP) - Rivers of Justice
The SDP, in coalition with other center-left parties, is HDZ's primary opponent. President Milanović has been an outspoken critic of the HDZ government, calling for greater civil liberties and reforms to combat societal stagnation. SDP's "Rivers of Justice" is projected to win 44 seats, making it the second-largest bloc. However, it faces the challenge of rallying enough smaller parties to challenge HDZ【9†source】.
3. Other Parties
Several smaller parties are expected to play kingmaker roles in the election:
- Domovinski Pokret (DP) or Homeland Movement**: A nationalist party, it is projected to secure 14 seats.
- Mozemo (We Can)**: A progressive leftist movement that rose to prominence in Zagreb, projected to win 11 seats.
- Most (Bridge)**: A centrist party with a focus on reform, expected to win around 9 seats【10†source】.
Key Issues and Challenges
1. Economic Concerns
The Croatian economy remains reliant on tourism, EU funds, and remittances, which are vulnerable to external shocks. With a public debt of around 90% of GDP, economic issues are critical to voters. However, despite the importance of the economy, the election campaign has largely sidelined detailed economic policies in favor of political theatrics【10†source】.
2. Emigration and Demographics
One of the most pressing concerns is the mass emigration of young people, leading to a population decline that threatens Croatia's long-term economic sustainability. This issue, coupled with low birth rates, has been raised repeatedly, but systematic solutions remain elusive【10†source】【11†source】.
3. Political Polarization
The political scene in Croatia is highly polarized, with significant divisions not only between the left and right but also within parties. This polarization is exacerbated by the personal animosity between Plenković and Milanović, which has contributed to a toxic political environment. Moreover, many political observers argue that the focus on historical grievances and identity politics is preventing Croatia from addressing contemporary issues more effectively【9†source】【10†source】.
4. Croatia’s Role in the EU
While Croatia is a member of the EU, NATO, and the eurozone, its role in the EU is still debated. There is growing concern about the country’s deepening ties with Russia, especially in light of sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU following the invasion of Ukraine. Croatia has witnessed a sharp increase in trade with Russia, raising questions about its commitment to the EU's foreign policy stance【10†source】.
Election Projections
With early polls indicating a tight race, neither HDZ nor SDP is expected to secure a parliamentary majority. The HDZ, while likely to win the largest share of seats, will need to form a coalition, which could involve smaller nationalist and conservative parties like DP and Most. The SDP could, in theory, rally a broad anti-HDZ coalition, but the ideological diversity of potential partners would make such an alliance difficult to sustain【9†source】【11†source】.
Additionally, voter turnout is expected to play a critical role in determining the final outcome. In the 2020 elections, turnout was around 50%, but early indications suggest that 2024 might see a higher turnout due to the heightened stakes【9†source】.
Conclusion
Croatia’s 2024 elections are poised to be a pivotal moment in the country’s political trajectory. With a polarized electorate, complex coalition dynamics, and unresolved economic and demographic challenges, the outcome is far from certain. Whether HDZ retains power or SDP manages to form a broad coalition, the next government will need to address both immediate and long-term issues to stabilize Croatia’s political and economic future.
Background and Political Climate
As Croatia gears up for its 2024 parliamentary elections, the political atmosphere is marked by intense competition, polarization, and a complex array of issues. The dominant political players include the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which has governed for much of the country's post-independence history, and the main opposition bloc led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) under the "Rivers of Justice" coalition.
Croatia's political system remains a parliamentary republic, with power divided between the president and prime minister. Prime Minister Andrej Plenković from HDZ and President Zoran Milanović, backed by the SDP, represent the two poles of political power. Both leaders have often engaged in heated exchanges, contributing to an increasingly polarized public discourse. This antagonism, combined with showmanship often likened to "Balkan" political culture, underscores a lack of political decorum, which has become a focal point of criticism【9†source】【10†source】.
Key Political Parties and Coalitions
1. Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)
The HDZ remains the largest party, but its dominance has been challenged in recent years. Despite winning the 2020 elections with 66 seats, early projections for 2024 suggest a decrease in support, with HDZ expected to secure around 58 seats. While still the front-runner, HDZ's hold on power is precarious. Its success will depend on building a coalition with smaller parties and the diaspora's three reserved seats【9†source】.
2. Social Democratic Party (SDP) - Rivers of Justice
The SDP, in coalition with other center-left parties, is HDZ's primary opponent. President Milanović has been an outspoken critic of the HDZ government, calling for greater civil liberties and reforms to combat societal stagnation. SDP's "Rivers of Justice" is projected to win 44 seats, making it the second-largest bloc. However, it faces the challenge of rallying enough smaller parties to challenge HDZ【9†source】.
3. Other Parties
Several smaller parties are expected to play kingmaker roles in the election:
- Domovinski Pokret (DP) or Homeland Movement**: A nationalist party, it is projected to secure 14 seats.
- Mozemo (We Can)**: A progressive leftist movement that rose to prominence in Zagreb, projected to win 11 seats.
- Most (Bridge)**: A centrist party with a focus on reform, expected to win around 9 seats【10†source】.
Key Issues and Challenges
1. Economic Concerns
The Croatian economy remains reliant on tourism, EU funds, and remittances, which are vulnerable to external shocks. With a public debt of around 90% of GDP, economic issues are critical to voters. However, despite the importance of the economy, the election campaign has largely sidelined detailed economic policies in favor of political theatrics【10†source】.
2. Emigration and Demographics
One of the most pressing concerns is the mass emigration of young people, leading to a population decline that threatens Croatia's long-term economic sustainability. This issue, coupled with low birth rates, has been raised repeatedly, but systematic solutions remain elusive【10†source】【11†source】.
3. Political Polarization
The political scene in Croatia is highly polarized, with significant divisions not only between the left and right but also within parties. This polarization is exacerbated by the personal animosity between Plenković and Milanović, which has contributed to a toxic political environment. Moreover, many political observers argue that the focus on historical grievances and identity politics is preventing Croatia from addressing contemporary issues more effectively【9†source】【10†source】.
4. Croatia’s Role in the EU
While Croatia is a member of the EU, NATO, and the eurozone, its role in the EU is still debated. There is growing concern about the country’s deepening ties with Russia, especially in light of sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU following the invasion of Ukraine. Croatia has witnessed a sharp increase in trade with Russia, raising questions about its commitment to the EU's foreign policy stance【10†source】.
Election Projections
With early polls indicating a tight race, neither HDZ nor SDP is expected to secure a parliamentary majority. The HDZ, while likely to win the largest share of seats, will need to form a coalition, which could involve smaller nationalist and conservative parties like DP and Most. The SDP could, in theory, rally a broad anti-HDZ coalition, but the ideological diversity of potential partners would make such an alliance difficult to sustain【9†source】【11†source】.
Additionally, voter turnout is expected to play a critical role in determining the final outcome. In the 2020 elections, turnout was around 50%, but early indications suggest that 2024 might see a higher turnout due to the heightened stakes【9†source】.
Conclusion
Croatia’s 2024 elections are poised to be a pivotal moment in the country’s political trajectory. With a polarized electorate, complex coalition dynamics, and unresolved economic and demographic challenges, the outcome is far from certain. Whether HDZ retains power or SDP manages to form a broad coalition, the next government will need to address both immediate and long-term issues to stabilize Croatia’s political and economic future.